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Subject: Viridian Note 00430: Goodbye Cruel World
Entries in the Viridian Visionary Contest: Not even one so far, but the Contest Repository is open for business again, thanks to Viridian stalwart Bob Morris:
Links: *And the thing I like best about Worldchanging? They're people from all over and not a single one of them is crying in their damn beer! Link:http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=608209 "Apocalypse now: how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth" (((Could we retitle this "Apocalypse in fifty years," please? I just got up and looked out the window – that isn't an "apocalypse".)))Link:
"Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. You don't believe it? Then, says Geoffrey Lean, read this... (((Okay, I believe in floods, storms, droughts, melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers and even acidifying oceans. Those still aren't "apocalypse."))) "06 February 2005 "Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to play special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. (((No they aren't. I'm already a future historian looking back from a much hotter 2005, and the major developments that led us to today's impasse are the work of Watt, Rockefeller, Edison and Ford. Compared to the awesome labor of these titans, having 200 climate scientists meet to tot up the ongoing repercussions is pretty small beer.))) "As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster – destroying the climate that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years – they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded. (((It took TEN generations over a period of TWO HUNDRED YEARS to do this, and nobody was "sleepwalking" – if the energy mess was easy to solve, it would have been set right in the 1960s. This isn't sleepwalking, it's a combo of febrile incapacity and deliberate obscurantism.))) "Last week, 200 of the world's leading climate scientists – meeting at Tony Blair's request at the Met Office's new headquarters at Exeter – issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate change is taking place, and that time is running out. (((Too bad these harmless transatlantic boffins don't have their own Pentagon Special Operations office. Really, if they just vanished a few dozen key, evil Beltway coal and oil operatives into Guantanamo.... But wait! That would be wrong.))) "Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough. (((This sure isn't news to us Viridians.))) "The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri – chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – told a UN conference in Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming has reached 'dangerous' levels. Link:
(((Everybody pollutes everybody by now,
and, weirdly, "global dimming" may be the only reason
"global warming" didn't kill us wholesale ten years ago:)))
"Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic as the IPCC's worst predictions." Link:
"And an international task force – also reporting to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers – concluded that we could reach 'the point of no return' in a decade. (((What if we passed "the point of no return" back in 1975? Look, nobody can properly blame the year 2005 for a multi-century problem. If we're into a planetary climate calamity, we'll just have to don our miserable Khaki Green uniforms and claw and crawl our way back toward survivability by extraordinary means. Many of us will die, maybe all, but well, we'll likely be too busy living through it to remember our halcyon past.))) "Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out – just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem – to warn that unless governments take urgent action there 'will be a disaster'. Link:
Link:
"But it was last week at the Met Office's futuristic glass headquarters, (((hey, nice design detail there))) Links:
"The conference opened with the Secretary of State for the Environment, Margaret Beckett, warning that 'a significant impact' from global warming 'is already inevitable'. Link:
"It continued with presentations from top scientists and economists from every continent. These showed that some dangerous climate change was already taking place and that catastrophic events once thought highly improbable were now seen as likely. Avoiding the worst was technically simple and economically cheap, they said, provided that governments could be persuaded to take immediate action. (((Lead with the action instead of the terror next time!))) "About halfway through I realised that I had been here before. In the summer of 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts gathered in Vienna for an inquest into the accident at Chernobyl. The head of the Russian delegation showed a film shot from a helicopter, and we suddenly found ourselves gazing down on the red-hot exposed reactor core." (((Chernobyl today is one of the world's prettiest wildlife preservation areas. No, really, it just plain is, believe it or not.))) Link:
(((If it weren't for climate change, Chernobyl would be doing great. Chernobyl's dangerous for human beings, but for animals it's paradise. Even a radioactive cloud has a radioactive silver lining.))) "It was all, of course, much less dramatic at Exeter. But as paper followed learned paper, once again a group of world authorities were staring at a crisis they had devoted their lives to trying to avoid. (((Perhaps some self-criticism is in order. Scientists, why is your world politically dominated by know-nothings and religious fanatics?))) "I am willing to bet there were few in the room who did not sense their children or grandchildren standing invisibly at their shoulders. (((Look, that's a painful thought, but we are children and grandchildren. When it hits the fan in future, our children and grandchildren are going to be the responsible parties, thinking of their own children and grandchildren.))) The conference formally concluded that climate change was 'already occurring' and that 'in many cases the risks are more serious than previously thought'. But the cautious scientific language scarcely does justice to the sense of the meeting. (((How cautious will today's surviving scientists be when they're elderly and dying of the heat, I wonder?))) "We learned that glaciers are shrinking around the world. Arctic sea ice has lost almost half its thickness in recent decades. Natural disasters are increasing rapidly around the world. Those caused by the weather such as droughts, storms, and floods – are rising three times faster than those – such as earthquakes – that are not. (((Well, at least it's useful to have this stuff written down in black and white as the common wisdom of the reality-based community.))) "We learned that bird populations in the North Sea collapsed last year, after the sand eels on which they feed left its warmer waters – and how the number of scientific papers recording changes in ecosystems due to global warming has escalated from 14 to more than a thousand in five years. "Worse, leading scientists warned of catastrophic changes that once they had dismissed as 'improbable'. The meeting was particularly alarmed by powerful evidence, first reported in The Independent on Sunday last July, that the oceans are slowly turning acid, threatening all marine life. Link:
"Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, presented new evidence that the West Antarctic ice sheet is beginning to melt, threatening eventually to raise sea levels by 15ft: 90 per cent of the world's people live near current sea levels. Recalling that the IPCC's last report had called Antarctica 'a slumbering giant', he said: 'I would say that this is now an awakened giant.' (((At least they're starting to utter quotable soundbites. I wonder what people might do about mega-engineering Antarctica. They're bound to try something; it's cheaper to build dikes around the ice than build dikes around 90 percent of us.))) "Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois, reported that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a 'low probability event', was now 45 per cent likely this century, and 70 per cent probable by 2200. (((Those sure are interesting stats.))) If it comes sooner rather than later it will be catastrophic for Britain and northern Europe, giving us a climate like Labrador (which shares our latitude) even as the rest of the world heats up: if it comes later it could be beneficial, moderating the worst of the warming. ((("Beneficial"? Oh for heaven's sake.))) "The experts at Exeter were virtually unanimous about the danger, mirroring the attitude of the climate science community as a whole: humanity is to blame. (((Look, it wasn't space aliens. Of course "humanity is to blame." But who's gonna blame us, the Klingons? If you want to blame somebody, jail some polluters.))) There were a few sceptics at Exeter, including Andrei Illarionov, an adviser to Russia's President Putin, who last year called the Kyoto Protocol 'an interstate Auschwitz'. (((Huh?))) But in truth it is much easier to find sceptics among media pundits in London or neo-cons in Washington than among climate scientists. Even the few contrarian climatalogists publish little research to support their views, concentrating on questioning the work of others. (((That's for sure. Basically climate deniers talk, "research" and act like Holocaust deniers.))) "Now a new scientific consensus is emerging – that the warming must be kept below an average increase of two degrees centigrade if catastrophe is to be avoided. This almost certainly involves keeping concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main cause of climate change, below 400 parts per million. "Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations exceeding 370ppm and rising, but experts at the conference concluded that we could go briefly above the danger level so long as we brought it down rapidly afterwards. (((I'm betting on this scenario.))) They added that this would involve the world reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 – and rich countries cutting theirs by 30 per cent by 2020. (((I'm betting on reduction of emissions past zero and a world in 2200 that's heavily involved in sequestration.))) "Economists stressed there is little time for delay. If action is put off for a decade, it will need to be twice as radical; if it has to wait 20 years, it will cost between three and seven times as much. (((Or we can simply have a population crash of 90 percent or so, which takes care of the emission problems without any waffling economists.))) "The good news is that it can be done with existing technology, (((run the good news, damn it!))) by cutting energy waste, expanding the use of renewable sources, growing trees and crops (which remove carbon dioxide from the air) to turn into fuel, capturing the gas before it is released from power stations, and – maybe – using more nuclear energy. (((Great! Do all of it! Hurry up!))) "The better news is that it would not cost much: one estimate suggested the cost would be about 1 per cent of Europe's GNP spread over 20 years; another suggested it meant postponing an expected fivefold increase in world wealth by just two years. (((We'll all be rich and still alive! Get going!))) Many experts believe combatting global warming would increase prosperity, by bringing in new technologies. (((Where on earth are they getting these numbers?))) "The big question is whether governments will act. (((Oh who cares.))) President Bush's opposition to international action remains the greatest obstacle. (((He's just one oil man among many.))) Tony Blair, by almost universal agreement, remains the leader with the best chance of persuading him to change his mind. (((Quit pretending that Bush is God, Britons! Make up your own minds! Do you really want the guy running modern Iraq to kite around your world enforcing Kyoto with US Marines? Clean up your own yard!))) "But so far the Prime Minister has been more influenced by the President than the other way round. He appears to be moving away from fighting for the pollution reductions needed in favour of agreeing on a vague pledge to bring in new technologies sometime in the future. (((Bring them faster and the reductions will take care of themselves!))) "By then it will be too late. And our children and grandchildren will wonder – as we do in surveying, for example, the drift into the First World War – 'how on earth could they be so blind?' ((("Au Revoir, Belle Epoque"))) Link:
(((No no, wait, it gets even better! Real visionary scenario action here!))) "WATER WARS "What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water resources as populations grow and rains fail. "How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people than at present are expected to live in countries where water is scarce in the future, and global warming will make it worse. "How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil. (((Not to quibble here, but in a severe water crisis, aren't water-borne diseases and state collapse a lot more dangerous than water wars between organized states? "Water wars" is a paradigm in which national armies can still enforce order.))) "DISAPPEARING NATIONS "What could happen? Low-lying island such as the Maldives and
Tuvalu – with highest points only a few feet above sea-level –
will disappear off the face of the Earth. (((Maldives already
whacked by tsunami, actually.)))
Link:
"How would this come about? As the world heats up, sea levels are rising, partly because glaciers are melting, and partly because the water in the oceans expands as it gets warmer. "How likely is it? Inevitable. Even if global warming stopped today, the seas would continue to rise for centuries. Some small islands have already sunk for ever. A year ago, Tuvalu was briefly submerged. (((I wonder how truly "inevitable" this is... what if somebody went and re-glaciated Antarctica?))) Link:
"FLOODING "What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay, many other cities and vast areas of countries from Britain to Bangladesh disappear under tens of feet of water, as the seas rise dramatically. "How would this come about? (((While everybody was watching Fox News.))) Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica melt. The Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more than 20ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft. "How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely, but this year reported that the melting of both ice caps had begun. It will take hundreds of years, however, for the seas to rise that much. (((Maybe.))) "UNINHABITABLE EARTH (((Now we're talking!))) "What could happen? Global warming escalates to the point where the world's whole climate abruptly switches, turning it permanently into a much hotter and less hospitable planet. "How would this come about? A process involving 'positive feedback' causes the warming to fuel itself, until it reaches a point that finally tips the climate pattern over. "How likely is it? Abrupt flips have happened in the prehistoric past. Scientists believe this is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future, but increasingly they are refusing to rule it out. "RAINFOREST FIRES "What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such as those in the Amazon, go up in flames, destroying the world's richest wildlife habitats and releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to speed global warming. "How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted in 1999 that much of the Amazon will dry out and die within 50 years, making it ready for sparks – from humans or lightning – to set it ablaze. "How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to be right. Already there have been massive forest fires in Borneo and Amazonia, casting palls of highly polluting smoke over vast areas. (((One of these palls of smoke, from burning Chiapas, caused me to start Viridian List in 1998.))) "THE BIG FREEZE (((I hope you're enjoying this as much as I am.))) "What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get much colder because the Gulf Stream, which provides as much heat as the sun in winter, fails. "How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends fresh water into the North Atlantic. The less salty water fails to generate the underwater current which the Gulf Stream needs. "How likely is it? About even for a Gulf Stream failure this century, said scientists last week. ((("About even." Wanna know what that might be like? Something like this,
more or less:)))
Link
"STARVATION (((Yum!))) "What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa, for example, as rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland turns to desert, people flee in their millions in search of food. "How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease by up to 60 per cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in southern Africa this century. By some estimates, Zambia could lose almost all its farms. "How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles both global warming and Africa's decline. Scientists agree that droughts will increase in a warmer world. "ACID OCEANS (((the weird, wild scenario))) "What could happen? The seas will gradually turn more and more acid. Coral reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all life depends, will die off. Much of the life of the oceans will become extinct. "How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed half the carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming, so far emitted by humanity. This forms dilute carbonic acid, which attacks corals and shells. "How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists warn that the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented for 20 million years. Some predict that the world's coral reefs will die within 35 years. "DISEASE (((hack, hack, cough)))
"How would this come about? Four of our 40 mosquito species can carry the disease, and hundreds of travellers return with it annually. The insects breed faster, and feed more, in warmer temperatures. "How likely is it? A Department of Health study has suggested it may happen by 2050: the Environment Agency has mentioned 2020. Some experts say it is miraculous that it has not happened already. "HURRICANES (((the hits just keep on coming))) "What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms proliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas. Last September's repeated battering of Florida and the Caribbean may be just a foretaste of what is to come, say scientists. "How would this come about? The storms gather their energy from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur and threaten areas where at present the seas are too cool for such weather. "How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether storms will get more frequent and whether the process has already begun." 7 February 2005 17:36 O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O
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